Friday, January 25, 2008

Do I hear "two-and-a-half thirds"?

On March 7, last, Greenspan announced that there was a one-third chance that a recession was coming.

On May 7, he said that the probability of a recession hadn't changed.

Today, he said that he saw no clear proof that a recession had started.

Clearly, Greenspan sees probabilities better than he sees proofs. Lucky for us, we have Bernanke. Of course, he's still learning the job. But I'll say this for Bernanke: he's younger than Greenspan.

Why don't they ask me?

Reporter: Mr. Blumen, is there a recession going on, right now?

Blumen: Yes.

Reporter: What evidence do you have of that?

Blumen: It feels like a recession.

Reporter: Can you be more specific?

Blumen: It feels very much like a recession.

Reporter: But what evidence do you have?

Blumen: Well, my money has been recessing since November.

Reporter: Don't you mean "receding"?

Blumen: Yes. Thank you. I would say that the economy is definitely in recedion.

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