Do I hear "two-and-a-half thirds"?

On March 7, last, Greenspan announced that there was a one-third chance that a recession was coming.

http://babar.newsvine.com/_news/2007/03/07/601919-greenspan-sees-33-chance-of-recession

On May 7, he said that the probability of a recession hadn't changed.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/35280-alan-greenspan-still-a-33-chance-of-recession-by-year-end

Today, he said that he saw no clear proof that a recession had started.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/377d5532-cae8-11dc-a960-000077b07658.html

Clearly, Greenspan sees probabilities better than he sees proofs. Lucky for us, we have Bernanke. Of course, he's still learning the job. But I'll say this for Bernanke: he's younger than Greenspan.

Why don't they ask me?

Reporter: Mr. Blumen, is there a recession going on, right now?

Blumen: Yes.

Reporter: What evidence do you have of that?

Blumen: It feels like a recession.

Reporter: Can you be more specific?

Blumen: It feels very much like a recession.

Reporter: But what evidence do you have?

Blumen: Well, my money has been recessing since November.

Reporter: Don't you mean "receding"?

Blumen: Yes. Thank you. I would say that the economy is definitely in recedion.