Sunday, January 27, 2008

Discounted Cash Flow Blues

If you had invested 30 cents in MSFT in 1986, your investment would have gone up forty-zillion per cent by now. We've all heard these stories, but I've never heard of anybody who did that.

Is GOOG that kind of stock? I'm not sure. In 1986, MSFT was a shrimp. It had a lot of growing ahead. GOOG was born already big. On August 19, 2004, GOOG closed its first day of trading at 100. From then to now, it has doubled twice. AAPL, on August 19, 2004, closed at 15, so it has doubled three times over the same span. Highly respectable returns for both, but not even close to a zillion.

Today, the highest published target price for GOOG is 900. That's just 59% from here. A double from GOOG's highest price achievement so far would put it in spitting distance of 1500. Now that's a number I could get interested in. Five years? I've got time.

Sunday musings.

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