Saturday, January 12, 2008

The Long Dark Saturday Night of the Soul

The market doesn't open until Monday. It's just Saturday night. Garrison Keillor, on the Bose, is talking about Lake Wobegon. Here, it's been raining, off and on, all day. That's really good for the drought, but it doesn't help the mood.

Barron's was in my driveway, again. On the cover, a bunch of people you've heard of before, smiling and waving at each other like the world is not going to hell. Inside, they say there's a possibility that it is going to hell, as in you ain't seen nuthin, yet. What does this mean?

Is the market going to hell, or not? I don't know. With all the cash I've got, I should be happy if it does. But the ease with which I put a large amount of cash at risk yesterday has got me shook. I need to unwind that little trade, as soon as possible, hopefully, with a small profit. But I'm not worried about my cash.

It's my GOOG shares I'm fretting about, now. What am I doing, owning this much GOOG in a time of fear and ambiguity? I put more in last week! When everybody's feeling good, GOOG can support a 50 multiple, which gets you to 750. But when every rat is looking for his hole, a 30 multiple, or worse, will take us back to 450. Or worse. I think I hate 450 more than I love 750. I need to lighten up.

But earnings are coming up. Cramer hears they had a good quarter. And Doug Kass says the Fed is going to lower rates, any day now. Don't panic too soon. Give these things a chance to work out. Then panic.

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