Signs of Strength

GOOG opened $2 down this morning, but immediately shot up $15 in a straight line to $617.88, before the bears started piling on. But the naysayers were only able to push it back down $9 to $608.32, at which point the bulls reasserted themselves and battled back to a very respectable finish at $614 on the nose, up $9.36.

The rest of the portfolio was also up nicely on the day, with the bottom line benefiting by 0.99%.

Recognition Where It's Due

DE and COP deserve special commendation for their resilience in coming back so good. OIH made a nice contribution too, and C chugged right along on its on track.
GOOG was temporarily embarrassed.

Not a bad day

This morning, the portfolio threatened to continue yesterday's dismal action, but in the afternoon it staged an impressive comeback to end the day up flat.

Money, We Hardly Knew You

One bad day. Fear trumps greed, every time. All of DE's performance of the last few weeks reversed in a single day. GOOG also down, but still comfortably north of $600. COP dug in its heels, allowing a small decline of little significance.

The portfolio has reached a stasis point from which a new inflection, up or down, will be required. The bottom line gave up about 1%, but there's nothing to be overly concerned about. Yet.

It's a good day for shining your shoes

It's a good day when, at the close, you have something to feel good about.

GOOG got smacked down again for no good reason.

But COP is once again above my cost basis with a buck to spare,

and

DE is relentless, scratching out a decent gain above $89.

ATPG and C, pitted against one another, were a wash.

All in all, a good day to write home about.

Yawn

GOOG continues its relentless assault on the heights, refusing to give up an inch. Up $1.61 on the day when everything else was in hunker down mode. Nothing to get excited about either way. Time to catch up on my Angry Birds.

Done, as if by order

Monday, GOOG went on a tear, retaking $600 decisively. Friday, I said that GOOG was searching for $600. Predictions are meaningless—the tear was real. That's all that counts.

You gotta feel it, struggling its way back up. The big Gorilla just stood up and busted through the ceiling, and now he's climbing up the building again. Traders in bi-planes, circling around him. And then the Gorilla morphs into John Huston, gold-dancing on the mountain, and the traders morph into Fred C. Dobbs, already plotting to kill the others and steal all the gold for himself.

What's good for the nation is good for Obama

Monthly jobs report exceeds all expectations. The economy is now seen to be firing on many cylinders. The news made everyone giddy, which was good for today's action. There is a growing sense that we've reached a tipping point on the boom-doom scale. The train that had been running over you is now leaving the station.

GOOG searching for $600.

DE seizes high ground above $88, coming to rest at $88.40.

COP rebasing.

OIH is poised.

C continues its drunken whirl up the mountain.

A little hand for the group

With less than half an hour to go, I would like to commend my little ensemble of stocks for their all-around good performance today.

We're still in a deep hole, looking up, but a good day is a good day.

...and Flynn a-hugging third!

I'm reminded of Casey at the Bat by GOOG's action, the past few days—it's been hugging $580 like Flynn was hugging third. And C, like Jimmy, safe at second with a little gain. But from the perspective of the whole inning, there was no joy in Mudville and the portfolio took a hit of 0.18%.

And a good day was had by all, except COP

GOOG tested the deep end of the pool, didn't like it and snapped back to just six cents shy of $580.

DE, a stalwart gainer of late, was over $88 most of the day, but then dropped back to $87.99. I guess that made somebody happy.

COP was the only downer, but not by much. This weakness is not just about the collapse of natural gas, I'm thinking. I think people are shy of taking on COP before the split-up, which should happen soon.

ATPG, OIH and C toiled away in their ruts.

Total portfolio change since yesterday: 1.13%. Not bad.

We was fab

Intraday, today, we was champs---GOOG was up a fin, DE came within 11 cents of achieving $89, everything was up.

At the close, only C remained in the green with a meaningless gain of $0.42.

The portfolio was down 0.54% on the day. The net profit in the group is 1.5%, which is more than I can say for my money market shares.

Today, all my dreams came true

I asked the Closing Price Fairy today for GOOG to close above $580; for COP to end with a gain, no matter how small; and for DE, which had been down over a buck and a half intraday, to cut its loss to less than fifty cents.

At the close:

GOOG $580.93
COP       +0.05
DE           -0.48


Thanks to the Closing Price Fairy and 
the old stone Church of the Sacred Bleeding Heart 
for this result.

A Tobacco Road Kind of Day

Nothing in my list today varied more than a dollar, up or down—that's as flat as it gets. Percentage-wise, ATPG was up almost 5%, but don't get excited—it's a seven dollar stock right now. Nothing to be exactly proud of.

Percentage change in the portfolio today is 0.

Rally round the ticker, boys

There wasn't a lot for me to like in today's action.

It got started yesterday afternoon with another debacle where all the analysts got Google's earnings wrong again.  Why don't these guys get fired?

Then, today, all my stocks opened down and stayed there for most of the day, plus it was raining in Snellville.

But, into the close, their were a couple of things to get cheery about:

     >  ATPG didn't go down.

     >  COP and OIH went down, but just a little.

     >  DE was impressive, gaining a dime to close above $87.

     >  C was up smartly, but nothing C does in the near term means anything.

     >  GOOG, after it's initial whoosh! to damn near $560, settled down.

Bouncing off that bottom, GOOG rose at the open this morning to $591 and then stabilized around $586, where it closed. This doesn't feel like the ghosts of GOOG debacles past. I feel strength and resiliency in the stock.

Despite this setback, I believe we are entering a new range for GOOG. People are becoming aware that GOOG's relentless earnings, even when they disappoint, are lifting the tide that will ultimately engulf the price and carry it upwards.

Looking up at Everest from the floor of a bar in Kathmandu

From this linoleum floor I'm on, Everest doesn't seem all that high to me. If I were ever to reach that summit, I'm sure I'd see a sign saying "This Way To GOOG $741".

Fellow sufferers, we still have a way to go—yet another unscheduled pit stop on the long road to Hallelujah Land.

Google Eve

Google Eve again. The pressure never lets up. This is a critical juncture for GOOG—the report tomorrow will have to blow past the high end of analyst estimates, as it did the last two quarters, if we are to see $700, instead of $600 again. The perverse sons-of-bitches whose favorite short is GOOG will have to feel the sting of the lash once again if they are to be completely routed.

Elsewhere, in my portfolio, DE has surmounted $86 for the first time in quite a while and my oil stocks were solidly to the upside. Even C got a bounce.

The portfolio ended the day with everything in the green for an overall gain of 1.3% since yesterday.

All in all, a satisfactory Google Eve. Let's hope that Google Day, tomorrow, will be equally satisfactory.

An Unpleasantness

Years ago, Larry Munson---who died recently---used to sit in front of a teletype machine and try to conjure up for his radio audience the color of an eyewitness account of Nashville Vols' baseball games from the meager data coming in over the wire after each inning.

I think about Munson as I sit here each day, watching the numbers on my Google Finance portfolio screen change from second to second.  From that, I try to come up with something interesting to say that will summarize the day's progress or retreat. I'm just like Munson, I think---all I need is an audience.

Today was unpleasant all around, with the only bit of cheer being provided by DE, which resisted the trend with a .26% rise.

Clevelands and Kardashians

GOOG continued to chug up the hill.  Earnings mania will set in next week.  There won't be much time for the traders to press another downturn before Google Eve. Whether that bodes well or ill for the next quarter is anybody's guess.

My oil stocks continued to slide.  I understand that the crash in the price of natural gas is to blame.  Of course.

Deere valiantly fought back to close down just $0.06.  It continues in the plus column—up a Cleveland.

Citigroup continues to shine, although, in front of every silver lining, there is a dark cloud.

Total portfolio down a quarter of one percent---Kardashian tip money.

Deep Holes and Destiny

DE and C improved their prices smartly today, and GOOG didn't go down.  C, of course, is coming up from a deep hole, but DE is now showing a profit of 1.26%.  GOOG is just fooling around before Google Eve.  Nothing good will happen until then.

All the oils (ATPG, COP and COP) stunk.

So let us be thankful for small favors and future expectations, and remember to stay out of deep holes.

Let's hear it for Larry Page!

I should be happy today---all my stocks were up.  DE was in the plus column for the first time since I bought it.  COP inched up comfortably above my highest cost basis. ATPG, OIH and C had nice gains north of 2% each.

Only GOOG, though up on the day, turned in an anemic performance of .11%.  It remains hunkered, waiting for further assaults from the GOOG perma-bears.

Also, I might add that NLY, which I sold, was up .99%.  Way to go, NLY!

The whole portfolio was up .70%.  I'll take it.  I'll need it tomorrow when I'll have to give it back.

On slow days, the mind wanders---I'm thinking about what Bill Gates, Steve Jobs and Bobby Fischer had in common, namely, a killer instinct that made them want, not just to best their opponents, but to destroy them.

And I'm wondering if Larry Page also has this quality.  With a mission to be open and free with everything, you would think not. But maybe that was Sergey's idea.  I think Larry has shown, from the start, that he wants, if not to kill, then at least to beat the buggers into submission.  And I think he has executed on that plan magnificently during the whole history of Google.

Bummer

Motorola's troubles were visited on GOOG today.

Once again, it's hunker down time, for no good reason.  With Google Eve right around the corner, too.

The traders will want to see if they can push it back under $600. It worked for them last time.  This time, I'm not so sure.

The rest of the card was fair to piddling.

Courtesy of GOOG, the portfolio lost 1.66%.  Last Tuesday's ramp has been undone.

Big bang, followed by little whimper

The first week of 2012 was a short one—it started with a bang on Tuesday, with reverberations into Wednesday, but faded on Thursday and Friday.

On Thursday, I sold my small position in NLY for a tiny profit, plus a dividend.  I decided that NLY has too many headwinds going forward.

My portfolio ended 2011 essentially flat (-.10%).  So far, in 2012, I'm up 1.36%.

GOOG, COP and DE are in breakout mode.  C, OIH and ATPG are still in the penalty box.

My current stocks, as of COB Friday, have a net gain of 7.41%.  GOOG and COP have a combined gain of 23%.  ATPG, OIH, DE and C have a combined loss of 21%.

The nice thing is that my winners represent 83.28% of my portfolio.

The Calm after the Storm

A flat day after such an upheaval as we had yesterday is not a bad thing. Google eked out a small, but decent gain, dotting the i in its increase, as they say on the floor of the big board. Deere was especially strong---I may show a profit in this position soon. Everything else was just treading water.

The Breakout has Broken Out

I just googled the title of this post, and got no exact links.  I'm surprised that it hasn't been used before.  Now, I'll be credited with the phrase, if there's an Android in heaven.  Actually, I'm not really concerned about whether there is an Android or not.

It was a good day for me.  I don't know about you.  A lot of guys were leaning the wrong way.  Hey, we're all keeping you losers in our thoughts, okay?

Google was tremendous.  Throttle back, all the way.  $700 is a given now.  We have to start talking about $745, where this stock has never gone before.  It could easily run to a new all-time high and then bog down under $800.  It won't be easy, but I thinking a new range is being established.  The old one was $250 to $750.  The new one will be $750 to $1000.  Altucher will be vindicated.

Conoco did good today, too.

Everything did good today.

Fin d'année

If you don't read French, as I don't, use Google Translate, damn you, as I do.  It's a cheap way of giving this blog the appearance of a little erudition. I resolve, henceforth, to give French titles to all my posts.  Of course, I have a long history of not keeping resolutions.

For those of you who disdain Google Translate, I am considering my situation at the end of the year now past.  From the table below, you can see that I am preposterously undiversified in my investments.  Certified Financial Advisors are taught to retch at portfolios like mine.  I don't care.  I have great confidence in this group of stocks.  I sleep well at night.

GOOG ended the year at a breakout level of $645.90.  I expect to see $700 in January, following the release of fourth quarter earnings.  Within the year, I hope to see prices north of $741, where GOOG has never gone before.  For this to happen, the traders who have hated this stock from the beginning will have to capitulate.  Stranger things have happened.  Somebody named Alan Brochstein, who has 66,000 followers, tweeted "900" for GOOG last Thursday.

Admittedly, that is in the upper regions of the atmosphere, where James Altucher lives and breathes pure ozone.  But I expect to see that level and beyond in my lifetime.  That's why I have allocated almost half of my worldly possessions to GOOG shares.

COP is my next largest position.  Closing the year at $72.87, it is just above the break-even point for my most recent acquisitions during the last downturn, after selling shares at $79.25, last April.  COP and GOOG are my biggest profit makers.  I'm looking forward to the coming split of COP into two companies in early 2012, which should unlock additional value for shareholders.

DE is my third largest position, but it accounts for only 10.88% of my holdings.  At year's end, I have a 7.31% loss in the stock, owing to an untimely purchase last year.  I confess to knowing nothing about farm equipment—I used to think that Massey Ferguson was a trumpet player—but Cramer said DE was good, so I bought it.  I have reasonably good hope that I will eventually achieve a profit here.

The rest are small spuds.

I own ATPG and OIH because I'm too old to ride real rollercoasters.

I own C because that's where the money used to be.

I own NLY because I'm a greedy pig.

I have losses in all these stocks (except NLY), but I stubbornly hold on to them because I can.  My conviction is that they will recover some day.

On this first day of 2012, my only regret is that the stock market is not open tomorrow.

Your indulgence is most appreciated

Ahem.

It's the time of year for new beginnings, etc.

I'm resolving to make more posts to The Google Opinion in the coming year, by making them briefer, with arguably less hilarity than in the past, but more informative in a monotonous kind of way.

I will start each post by giving the significant events of the day that have impacted my portfolio.  Things of interest mainly to me.

Then I will display a chart, showing the stocks I currently own with the percentage that each one contributes to my total level of poverty.

Again, something of interest mainly to me.


Happy New Year!

The Management  

Google Eve

Can it be Google Eve again? Time to go down again into the Google Bunker and hunker, waiting for the blast, tomorrow evening.

The buzz on GOOG, lately, has been subdued, but grudgingly constructive. The expectation is that Google will turn in another stellar quarter like their previous one, when the earnings blew out the blowout numbers. But that's the issue - if the result, this time, doesn't blow by even the highest of the analyst guesses, then disappointment will rain down.

As a dedicated GOOG watcher, I believe that Google's performance may equal last quarter, but not exceed it by enough to cause another seismic rendering of the earth like last time. In that event, GOOG the stock will likely dither for a while after hours and then settle for a pop of modest proportions.

Then, I believe, GOOG will work its way higher, retaking 600 and preparing for an assault on 700 in January. At that point, I will strive to sell half my long-term position.

Note from down in the flood

This year, as in 2007, I sold at the right time. And this year, as in 2008, I went back in way too soon. Now, I'm sitting here, at or near the bottom, with no ammunition left. I gotta work on my itchy trigger finger.

I look into the abyss and tremble not

On July 26, 2011, I sold 500 XOM at $84.4028.
On July 29, 2011, I bought 600 COP at $71.72 and 200 COP at $71.65.

At the close today, 95.8% of my assets are in equities, 4.2% in cash.

I am not afraid. My bottom line will be my scorecard.

Hallelujah Land!

BLOWOUT QUARTER FROM GOOGLE! 

NAYSAYERS PROVED WRONG! 

STOCK UP $55 IN AFTER HOURS TRADING! 

LARRY PAGE RELAXES IN HOT TUB!

Google Eve

It's Google Eve, once again, and all I want to see before I cash out is GOOG at $742 - where it has never gone before. Of course, I'd love to see $800, but I may not get there with you. But that doesn't matter to me now - if $742 could be achieved, I would tell the conductor to let me off, it's Hallelujah Land!

On the art of selling high and buying low

Since Google entered its annual swoon, I have been beset with Spring doldrums. I feel like I'm lying out on some broken-down porch on Tobacco Road. Correction: I feel like a hound dog lying out on some broken-down porch. But it's only this blog that I have been neglecting - I can report that I have made a few propitious trades during this latest downturn.  I pass it on as an object lesson in selling something with the hope of buying it back lower, while scratching fleas at the same time.

Eschewing, as I do, play-by-play reporting, I present the tabular events, as they occurred, from which the careful reader can infer the action:

COP is the first oil I bought, and my biggest gainer. I had sold some in January at $67.05 - a little early, but with a decent profit. Then, struggling around $80, after tagging $81, COP seemed ripe for a sale. So, at the end of April, I sold another quarter-position at $79.25, and then fretted for several days, thinking I was too early again. Then the market changed and has been heady to the downside, ever since. I am waiting now to see where the market goes, before buying more COP.

(Closing Price)

I've had a nice run with OIH, although the big-numbered share price makes changes seem bigger than they are. Perhaps for the same reason, OIH seems very volatile with daily swings of $2 to $5 dollars. I originally bought OIH for $138.20, adding a little more at $161.85.  When the market turned sour, I dithered a few days and then sold out at $164.76.  Since then, I have been trading in and out of this stock on its way down, with nary a loss.  My anxiety lay in being out of the stock, when it turned around and roared up without me.  This, in fact, happened once, but a few days later, it tanked again and I scampered back aboard at $147.64.  This was about an hour before it finally went to ground around $143 and bounced.

(Closing Price)

Potash, I hardly knew you.  I acquired a small position in March at $54.86 and sold it, three weeks later, for $59.05.  I like the stock, long term, but I thought it was too late in the cycle.  I would like to buy it back if it goes lower from here.

I'm comfortable now with my style of trading around a few long-term positions.  So far, I've been lucky.  My anxiety now is centered around the fear of going back in, too soon.  However, the credible opinions I am hearing suggest that this will be a garden-variety selloff, followed by another leg up.  I'm set for that, having lowered the cost bases on my stocks by selling higher and buying back lower.  But if we keep heading for perdition, as many traders still secretly think and hope for, then it will be a long winter. The problem is, I've used up a lot of my kindling, already. Nevertheless, my confidence in my stocks is such that I'm willing to hold them. My objective is to have only profits on my Schedule D, each year.  It's a work in progress.

Google Day

I cannot move,
And my fingers are all in a knot


At 3:30 PM, with about an hour or so until the earnings are released, the expectations are for a huge quarter for Google, which means that the actual performance will have to be beyond huge to send the traders scurrying for cover.

The action in the stock is muted, so far today, in contrast to previous ramps into earnings.  After my catharsis on Google Eve, I am ready for anything.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/263515-shorts-see-the-better-trade-scenario-with-google-earnings

Google Eve

And negativity won't see you through.


When it's new moon in April, Google Eve is a somber occasion, in memory of past Google Eves in this cruelest of all months which have not gone well with the analysts, hedgies and traders.  These denizens of the tradewinds have sought to find fault with stellar earnings and revenue.  Faced with a tsunami in stellar reports over the past six years, they seek to find the tiniest, slightest hairline crack in the moat.  And the stock gets hammered.

When it's Google Eve in April, then, we diehards hunker down and flinch in advance of the news.  We get all our flinching out, so that tomorrow we can stand resolute and unflinching when the mosquitoes hit the 'net.  By our presence and manner, we will show them that their negativity will not prevail.

Someday, GOOG will see $800 and beyond.

Shut Down and Shut Up!

Something's happening here,
What it is ain't exactly clear

I used to work for the federal government.  In 1995, with all the other feds, I got shut down, and it was a pain in the neck, but not much more than that.  The perceived effect of the shutdown to the public, however, was horrific - all the things that people take for granted stopped working.  If the Tea Baggers want to show what it would be like without any government, they may get their chance tonight.  It may take that to shut them up for good.

Woolgoogling

At 3 PM, GOOG is, once again, on sale - not much to talk about there.

It's a good day for divining the near future:  what's going to happen when everyone in the world has a device on which they can get everything? I'll tell you:  Apple, the sub-orbital missile, will fall to earth.  Google, on the other hand, will orbit the world.

The Jobs Conundrum

I'd like to know what kind of email traffic has been going on between Steve Jobs and his lieutenants-in-charge.  I don't need to read the stuff, just let me know the frequencies - if it's over a hunnert per day, that's bad for Apple.  It means that Jobs is still running the company, because his subordinates can't do it.  On the other hand, if it's one or two a week, that may mean that Jobs is preparing to meet his Inventor, while the Company keeps on truckin'.

Whither Me

The market's on a tear.  The smart guys are on the sidelines, but I'm in it. I'm a genius. Me and Cramer.  I've got 75% of my assets in these five stocks:  GOOG, COP, OIH, C and ATPG, and they're all up big. But there's a reckoning coming.  QE will cease someday.  Maybe in June. Everybody knows about it.  Shall I get out in May? Sell everything, hunker down, wait?

But what if GOOG is still below $700?  Oil not at $110 yet.... C under $6.... ATPG under $25?  Why sell anything?  If the correction is 10%, I could at best catch only 5% of it.  Is it worth it to chase the correction and end up on the sidelines when the market burps and keeps going? I ask myself.

Maybe I should eschew market calls altogether, keep these stocks forever, sell a few shares when I need a little walking around money. Things look like hell now, but they are getting better.  Remember the words of that stock market sage, Steve Miller:  Time keeps on slipping... into the future!  And the past:  this is 1995, when the market gained 35% and then kept on doing it for the next five years.

Trade, or hold forever.  Which to do?

To me, the choice is not just a financial decision.  It's which way will be more fun.

Copping a Feel

One of my pastimes in retirement is watching the action of the stocks I own. Most days, I follow their movements, up and down, throughout each trading session. This gives me a feel for, and an intimacy with, their actions that no amount of chart-hugging can provide.

At any given time, I have an intuition about their intraday meanderings - at the open, during the midday stretch, and into the close - as well as their likely longer term movements - cyclical and secular, before and after earnings reports. I'm not always right, but neither am I often wrong.

I know, for example, that the market is in an uptrend, owing to a surprising recovery in the economy and Bernanke's quantitative easing; and that, against this background, GOOG, C, COP, OIH and ATPG are in solid upswings. Nothing to do but wait for the last half of 2011, when the easing eases and eventually ceases. That will be an inflection point.

I've watched GOOG the longest (six years), and my feel for it is visceral. In 2008-9, I rode it down, day by sickening day, to $270, passing levels I thought I would never see again; and, since the turn, I have ridden it back up, feeling in my gut the struggle between the traders, persistently selling it short as though this was still 2008, and the long-term buyers who can't believe their luck at still being able to buy this stock at these levels, given the spectacular performance of the company, quarter after quarter.

So, when I posted, last Saturday, that GOOG might just make a stand at $601, I based it on the fact that GOOG had just mounted a monumental struggle from the low $400's to over $600, and then had revisited the high $500's before breaching $600 again - I could feel it wanting to go higher. And so it has.

I think the way is clear for GOOG to make an assault on its all-time high of $741 this year, probably sooner rather than later. There will be pitched battles at $650, $675 and $700, but these will be little more than skirmishes with the short sellers.

My big decisions will be made at these milestones: I may lighten up a bit and try to trade for a few thou, but my gut tells me to keep my eyes on the prize. If, however, I find GOOG in the rarified air between $750 and $800, I will definitely take some shares off the table. If I don't, Cramer will revoke my subscription to RealMoney.

The 800 Dollar Gorilla

Anyone who doesn't sense the hand of that jokester, Yahweh, in the actions of equity traders has only to mark the recent fortunes of AAPL and GOOG, post-earnings. Both reports were stellar and both contained gotchas, regarding the leadership of the companies: Jobs is sick again, and Larry Page is replacing Eric Schmidt.

Both stocks tanked when the stories came out, but AAPL recovered quickly since, in the firmament of traders, Jobs is next to Godliness. GOOG, on the other hand, dithered around after hours, but then, the next day, sank like a stone because the stupid traders think that Larry and Sergey are a couple of goof balls - they envision Larry, instituting four days a week for employees' personal projects and one for the company; and they envision Sergey, breaking off relations with the entire world, because no country is pure enough for him. Never mind that the big analysts were unanimous in their praise of Page and Brin, taking over from Schmidt, and several, for the first time, issued price targets of $800 for the big gorilla. It's the stupid traders whom Yahweh selects for his jests.

So we have GOOG back at $612, and apparently heading lower, after I just said that we didn't need to see GOOG at $600, ever again. My bad. However, with Yahweh, it's never over - GOOG may well turn around at $601 and head straight for Hallelujah Land.

Google Eve

Google Eve beckons, once again. This time, the traditional wienie roast on Dover Beach has been canceled. All Googoptimists are encouraged to stay in their homes tonight and meditate on GOOG's fate tomorrow.

We're at a critical juncture. GOOG's story is good, the charts are aligned, GOOGtide is rising, but that's a perfect setup for a little joke from Jahweh, manifested through the actions of traders. We got a big bounce last time - is it too much to expect another one, this time? If GOOG is going to keep rising, we'll need the mother of all blowouts tomorrow night.

It's time for GOOG to grow up and surpass its all time high. We don't need to see $600. Ever again.

Donuts to Dollars

New Year's Eve is a time for reflection about the year past and the year ahead. How anyone can do that, inebriated, in with a group of other inebriated people, with party hat on and blow-out noisemaker going, is a topic for another day. This morning, my wife and I celebrated New Year's, in our usual manner, by getting a dozen donuts. If you should ever ask me why this last day of the year is different from all other days, I will say it's the donuts.

Not being inebriated, then, I am capable of reflection in complete sentences. Right now, I'm reflecting about my reasons for buying the five stocks that I currently own. While not as analytic as a chart or balance sheet, the matter of what was I thinking when I bought these stocks might provide the earnest reader with a useful and corrective homily for his own trading behavior.

Conoco Philips (COP)

In my investing career, I have gone from fearful to foolhardy. In the case of oil stocks, back in 2004, I bought only piddling amounts of Cimarex and Encana, because I was fearful of oil. I was fearful because I listened to Cody Willard, a real westerner, tell about the inevitable tendency in the oil business to go boom and then go bust. Crude oil was then booming through $50, on its way to $147. Even $50 was, to Willard, a boom of such historic proportion that the bust must be coming soon with devastating effect on those left holding the barrel. Willard was a smart guy on Cramer’s website, and his uncle had stories to tell about the wildcatting days. Nevertheless, I bought a little oil because Cramer was pounding the table about the sector, but Cody made me scared to risk a substantial amount of capital, or hold the shares long enough for them to go through the roof. Result: I made a couple of thou, but left the big money on the table.

Now, I am both wiser and more foolhardy – in 2008, I acquired a starter position in Conoco because Cramer, still high on oil, was buy-buy-buy on it, along with everybody else. Over time, with a little success, my confidence grew and my fearfulness subsided, and I increased my stake to a couple of thousand shares. And I’m still holding them. Here at year’s end, with a cost-basis of $51.99, I’m up 32%, and the intermediate outlook for oil stocks is great, especially Conoco. It’s a sure thing, if you’re patient.

Nevertheless, Cody was right: Oil did go boom to $147, before going bust, but he made his call at $50, on the way up. So the early bird was way too early, and got the shaft. But I wonder how many people rode it all the way up and then rode it all the way back down. I sat it out the first time, but this time I’m on board. As always, the trick will be to know when to get off.

But I’m not worried. This time up, we have a road map: $90 oil to $100, and then, eventually, back to $147. The wise will get off somewhere between $110 and $147. The foolhardy will ride the thing all the way up and then (one would hope) bail somewhere on the terrifying ride back down. (Of course, the market reserves the right to change the road map at any time.)

Oil Services (OIH) (posted on 1/11/2011)

In March of last year, I decided to increase my exposure to the oil sector: I bought 500 shares of Exxon Mobil (XOM). Exxon is a supertanker of a company and slow to move - for the rest of the year, it basically went nowhere, while Conoco went up smartly. Daniel Dicker, on Cramer's web site, recommended Exxon over Conoco at year's end precisely for this reason - the slow will later be fast. So what did I do? I sold my Exxon in December, mainly from boredom, making about 17% on the transaction. Then, last week, I bought 400 shares of the oil services ETF (OIH). I did this on the recommendation of both Joe Terranova and Pete Najarian on the stock channel's Fast Money show. So far, OIH is not boring: the day I bought it, it closed up a buck from my purchase price; then, yesterday, it closed down a buck and six bits. Today, it has been up as much as $4, and now, around 3:30 PM, it is still up about $3. For an ETF, this sucker moves!

ATP Oil and Gas (ATPG) (posted on 1/12/2011)

Another oil. I first heard about about ATPG from a trader on Cramer's website. The story was that it was a hated stock with a very high short interest because the company was deeply in debt, trying to pull off a big coup with new technology for drilling offshore in holes abandoned by other big oil companies. If the company went bust, you would lose all your shekels, but if it succeeded, the stock could go from $15 to $75 in a hurry. I liked the story. So I read more about it on YAHOO's ATPG message board: there appeared to be a lot of posters with experience in the oil business who were betting the farm on success, but they were saying that you had to be patient. I can be patient, so I bought 1000 shares in November, 2009, and traded them between $12-14 to pick up a few thou. Then some good expectations surfaced and the stock shot up to $23. On the way up, I bought another 1000 shares at $20.42. I should have stood in bed. Shortly thereafter, the BP oil spill fracas occurred and the stock went to 9, fast. Suddenly, I was $10,000 in the hole, but I held on, trading between $9-14, to reduce my loss a bit, giving me a cost basis of $15.68 on 2000 shares. When BP's hole got plugged, ATPG recovered slowly, hampered by the headwind of the moratorium on drilling in the gulf. When the moratorium ended and ATPG was cleared to resume drilling, the stock started to move back up. It is now trading above $17 and my stake is back above water. I remain a believer and am holding the stock. It's a slow train coming, but Hallelujah Land is up around the bend.

(To be continued, with C and GOOG.)

Sleeping with one eye open

At this time of year, when the chilly winds blow cold and the end-of-year holidays conspire to shut the country down for a couple of festive weeks, I become reflective about why I am not richer than I am. I think of past follies, like selling Apple at $67 and being afraid to buy it back at $85, because Jobs was sick. But then I tell myself that I could have bought Microsoft in '86, or even as late as '95, and today I would be so stinking rich, that life itself would lose its allure.

The real folly is in fretting about the past. The only thing that counts is what I'm betting on now. Contrary to all intelligent opinion, I have now put two-thirds of my assets into five stocks, with the rest in cash. The stocks are Google, Conoco, Citigroup, Exxon Mobile, and ATP Oil and Gas. Cramer would say I'm overweight oil, but I don't care. I feel very comfortable because I know and understand these companies and their prospects. I believe that having enough confidence in a company to own it for a long time is the most critical element of investing success. I am so confident of these five stocks that I have acquired substantial positions in each of them.

I think that this is a time to be in the market. I am trying to resist the temptation to trade. The traders I watch are all clucking about the current level of bullish chatter they're hearing and, contrariwise, they are all still waiting for that slow train that they are sure is coming, which is the apocalypse promised by Roubini, Schiff and Fred Hickey. But the bullishness that the traders see is just headline frothiness. What they don't see is the deep, persistent and resistant level of bearishness underneath, which is them. It's this mother-lode of bearishness that supports my bullishness.

Meanwhile, I'm still taking lessons in the art of selling something.

And the Parabola Shall Be Made Smooth

In pundit-speak, GOOG opened up 10 today, with the rest of the giddy market, and ramped to nearly +15, before fading with the morning dew to a range of +10-13, where it is presently (3 PM) stuck.

The market wants desperately to see Santa Claus this year and GOOG's got its story back. Actually, GOOG has three stories going, and they're all good:

1. Google is not a one-trick pony anymore.
2. Mobile advertising is going parabolic.
3. GOOG owns 75% of mobile advertising.

And, I should add, Apple continues to do well - contrary to popular opinion, what is good for Apple is good for Google, too.

So, when is the party over? New Year's Eve? A little hangover might be due, but I wouldn't think of selling any GOOG for the next couple of years.

Loosen your seatbelt - it may not be as bumpy as you might think.

Lyrical Analysis

There's always another hard luck story that you're gonna hear.

For us long-distance runners in GOOG, there's nothing much to do between earnings reports, besides watching traders, trying to make money from themselves. After the earnings pop, last Google Eve, GOOG suffered a mighty rise, kissing its previous high for the year, before falling back.

Now, the GOOG bashers are back out of their holes, but they've lost their passionate intensity. The Mullahs of fundamental and technical analysis are recalibrating their instruments to account for the change, but we don't have to fool with that.

There's a new kind of analysis that I call lyrical. Lyrical analysis is simple - it focuses on the story. With lyrical analysis, you only have to know one thing - has the story changed?

Lyrical Analysis for GOOG

Old story : Google is a one-trick pony

New story: Google is not a one-trick pony

Result: the all-time GOOG high of 741 is in sight.

Forget fundamental and technical analysis. With lyrical analysis, all you need to know is the story.

Tell Snow White I'll Be a Little Late

I'm counting my money.

Google Eve

Google Eve is a time for kicking back, for not doing things like driving and playing horseshoes. It's a time for putting past failures behind and future successes ahead, which could start, either way, as early as tomorrow. It's a time for renewing bodily fluids. It's a time for spending a quiet night in the woods with Snow White and the dwarfs.

Google Up, Diatribe Follows

Google closed up $3.12 today. Good.

Now.

I'm a soft-spoken man - slow to anger and quick to forget. It's been my practice to suffer fools, if not gladly, then at least in the belief that we are all fools before Yahweh. Humility has its place. But I'm exercised about a video, in circulation for a couple of weeks, that I just saw today on Facebook.

The video shows a painting of a young, disheveled man, slumped on a bench in the park. Behind him, are depicted all the past presidents with looks on their faces ranging from aghast (Lincoln) to grieving (Bush) to gleeful and approving (Frank. D. Roosevelt and Clinton). They're all looking at Obama, standing in the foreground, facing away from everybody, with his jaw sternly set and arms folded, and his shoe on the Constitution, which somebody has thrown on the ground. One of the early presidents, whom I don't recognize, is beseeching Obama in a crouch that was unbecoming when John McEnroe assumed it, many years ago. If you want to see the video, google for it. I'm not going to show it to you.

Now, I didn't just come in on a boat, I know how a lot of people think these days, but I am moved to respond to this video, to make up for all the times I've heard and seen this kind of crap before and didn't vent spleen.

I'm tired of all the people who, in speech or painting, call Obama arrogant, when what they really mean is uppity.

I'm tired of all the fundamental Biblical literalists who want to apply their ridiculous logic to the Constitution of the United States. Who believe that, if the Founding Fathers had intended on regulating McDonalds, they would have put something in the Constitution about it.

And I'm tired of being angry about the real constitutional outrages in recent memory: the 2000 voting debacle in which SCOTUS cheated Al Gore out of 8 years of splendid misery; the granting to corporations of the same rights and privileges enjoyed by humans, including the right to buy the congressman of your choice and, presumably, abortion services; and the canonization of the right for every citizen to be packin' , in churches and day care centers, and other places where life might be threatened. I'm not an expert on Constitutional law, but I can read. When the Founding Fathers wrote "the right of the people to keep and bear arms," they meant "the people", in the sense of "We the people." If they had been thinking about individuals, they would have written "the right of people to keep and bear arms."

I'm tired of those who call out Muslims, Catholics and Jews for moral turpitude, without including Baptists in the list.

I'm tired of those who don't believe in Global Warming for political reasons, when it is clearly prophesied in Revelation 16:8,9.

I'm tired of people, who don't have to worry about where their next RV is coming from, who can't stand their taxes being raised, even a little.

I'm tired of Don't Ask, Don't Tell. What the hell is that?

Finally, I'm tired of my own invective. It's not becoming of a Google shareholder. My apologies to Sergey and Larry.

Riding the GoogleCoaster with Mr. Jim

I've been reading Jim Cramer's commentary on his website for ten years, first as a freeloader and then as a paid subscriber. It has been a ticket inside his head, regarding the business of trading stocks. I admire the way that he not only provides tons of useful advice, but also gives me access to his emotional ups and downs in the process. I get to see that his roller coaster is just like mine.

I owe Cramer for getting me into GOOG for the first time in late 2004. I was fearful, but he banged on the table of his columns that GOOG must be bought until I dipped my toe in the water, first for 10 shares and then for more. I now own 500 shares.

Over the intervening years, Cramer has been hot and cold about GOOG. A year ago, he was hot, touting his target of 700 for the stock. Then he became deeply offended (I think that's the right term) when Google got in its tiff with China and moved its servers to Hong Kong. He applauded Google's moral courage, but castigated the decision - it was not good for business.

Since then, he has not mentioned Google in his posts, even when there was reason to. This morning, he filed a piece, titled "Apple, Web, Storage Are Tech Winners", and, although he cited virtually every other tech company in the Internet arena, he made no mention of Google.

However, just about an hour ago, as the stock was up 15 points on the day, he had to give Google its due:

Maybe now, we'll get some respect from Mr. Jim. At least, for a while.

Tuning the 'Net Means More Tuna in the Net

Google Instant is Google's new and improved search method which use's Google's vast storehouse of data to anticipate what users are looking for, even when they aren't sure themselves. You could call it mind reading, but new science always looks like magic, and this is a baby step in the direction of the semantic web. I've used it and am pleased with it, for being subtle and unobtrusive, as well as mind-blowing. Technical folks are in awe of what Google has wrought.

On a stockholder level, you could argue that Google Instant is more about increasing margins by reducing costs, specifically Traffic Acquisition Costs, which represent the cost of running the network and software required to make search come to click.

More efficient searches (fewer round trips to the Bigtable in the Sky to get to your click) means less network activity per click. Of course, the increased density (velocity) will result in more clicks per unit time.

Google is tuning the Internet to its bottom line. Nobody else does it better or more relentlessly.

The Unseen Hand

I think the market itself is an honest game. There are just too many marbles being pushed around to allow even the big boys to put their faces on the ebb and flow for very long.

That doesn't mean they don't try. Thousands do, I'm sure. But I'm even surer that there are thousands more who suspect and believe that miscreants are not only trying, but succeeding in manipulating markets constantly to the detriment of us, the small and meek. It happens all the time, they say. They can see it in their charts. A practice so vile that it is referred to only by its initials: MM.

Now, I'm an unbeliever in these matters, but now and then I sense a pattern in the movement of a stock I own that suggests the action of an unseen hand, be it Yahweh, or some hedge fund in New Jersey, I'm not sure. I had that feeling, last week, with ATPG, the thinly traded oil stock I own.

ATPG, a Gulf driller, has had its problems of late and, at the end of July, the stock was foundering in the neighborhood of $10.50. Then, it started off August with an unsuspected gap up to $11 at the open, followed by a gradual drift up in the direction of $12. That was August 2 and it closed around $11.50. On Tuesday, it began a steady rise to $12.31, then settled back to just under $12 at the close. I watched these events with increasing interest. Clearly, the stock was breaking out, but at whose behest, god or devil, I couldn't say. On the fourth, it opened up a dollar, near $13, and continued inexorably to the middle of fourteen.

Then, as the faithful were rejoicing, the stock began to swoon with as much purpose as it had shown on the ride up. The gas went out of the ATPG balloon, ending two days later with a big raspberries, on the floor of $10.46, a dime lower than its price at the month's beginning.

Everyone on the ATPG Message Board began to scream "MM" to each other and themselves. These abused innocents, suckered in once again, can be likened, in their belief, to the astrologers of old who beheld divinities in the heavens. They saw them in their charts.

But I remain skeptical, convinced as I am that only one force has both ability and desire to pull a trick like that. I sense the hand of Yahweh. I hear divine laughter. It's his MO.

What are we going to do with Uncle Google?

Let's say Google has a monopoly in search. At some future point in time. Not 65% share, but 95%. The remaining 5% will all be Apple fan boys, and may be disregarded. So, Google has 100% of all searches that mean anything. What then?

Antitrust tools are mostly blunt instruments for breaking up monopolies. But, in this case, the monopoly is vested in the Algorithm. You can't split up the Algorithm and parcel pieces of it out to Google competitors. It is a singularity. What competitors would want is access to Google's proprietary database, but that would be like giving away the family jewels. Google wouldn't want to do that. Or would it?

In a way, Google does this now. They give access to the second derivative of their data by letting anyone buy keywords and see the demographics that they produce. This is a valuable service and Google invented it. By rights, the stock should be much higher than it is now, but I digress.

As a monopoly, the antitrust people would ordain that search be set up as a public utility which would then be allowed to collect all the data, even from the Apple fan boys. And the data would be made available to anybody, pretty much as it is now, by purchasing keywords in order to gain access to aggregate demographics, which they could use as they please. Of course, the business would continue to be one of placing advertisements as purchased by the advertisers. So you see, it's not the data that other companies need, it's the function to which they are applied. Google provides this function now, better than anybody else can, for prices which are set by the going rate. However, as a public utility, the profit that Google will make for providing these services will be regulated by the government. Fair and square. That should settle the hash for all search wannabes who think they are smarter than Google.

Of course, that won't happen any time soon, so Google has ample time to make zillions for its patient shareholders. But, when it does happen, Google will finally have to come up with other ways to make obscene amounts of money.

The Analysts Who Couldn't Shoot Straight

If Google doesn't make its earnings and revenue numbers, whose fault is that? Google's, for not hitting the analysts' marks, or the analysts', for guessing wrong?

I know what I would say, but that's not the way it works. The way it works, the average of all the analysts' estimates is taken as the magic number that Google is to strive for. Google, however, doesn't strive for magic numbers. And so we long distance runners in GOOG are taken out and shot. Until next Google Eve. It's simple, really.

So what was it this time? It was that Google hired more people during the quarter than the analysts thought they should. But wait a minute, isn't that what companies are supposed to be doing - hiring employees to grow the business and help Obama bring us out of recession?

Sure, margins take a little hit, but that's the way it works - spend money to make money. It's simple, really.

Google Eve

The posts of Google Eve Past stretch back in time. Years of fear, punctuated by an occasional hooray.

We have spent time at Dover Beach, following ignorant armies around. We have joined together in virtual weenie roasts on other beaches, singing "Kumbaya" into the night. We long distance runners in GOOG are bound by a common misery.

Tomorrow Google will report stellar earnings and the stock will go nowhere. I just hope Schmidt shows up this time. Let Larry and Sergey drink coffee with Jobs.

I can't summon up enough enthusiasm to stage a virtuality. No beach. No dancing girls.

Sorry.

Smart phones concentrate the mind wonderfully

Let's talk interfaces.

The Windows UI was way better than MS-DOS. But Windows could have been way better than it was. They should have lost the mouse at the get-go. I'm sure that every first-time user of the mouse probably said to himself, why can't I just point? But the mouse came from the sacred days of Xerox PARC and it was a gadget and a market unto itself. Even Microsoft sells them.

A touchscreen interface has always been available in Windows from its earliest days, but nobody used it or even talked about it. Windows used the mouse.

That's the great thing about smart phones. They don't use the mouse. A smart phone with a mouse connected to it would have been laughed out of town. So we have what we should have had all along - our fingers, which were made for pointing, and whishing, and other simple tapping maneuvers. Moving our fingers is perfectly natural, but the mouse was done in by the form factor.

The form factors of smart phones are also responsible for another, more subtle revolution in interacting with these devices. The screen real estate is so small that web app developers have had to structure their processes into discrete steps, where each display involves only one step. Navigation is done from one level to another, not from page to page, and is handled by the operating system.

Consider the Back button in PC browsers, like IE, or even Chrome. Hitting the Back button there will cause a return to the last loading of the page, without regard to the app's structure and state, or the user's intention. That's what I mean about levels. They are defined to the Smart Phones' OS Back history by the application.

The result is a UI which makes you do one thing at at time. Nice. The opposite strategy was encouraged by Microsoft itself in its Office Suite - the first few iterations of MS Project, for example, put forth a terrifying collection of everything on a single screen. Every form and list that could be created and updated in this application was there in frames that could be expanded and collapsed at will. If you didn't know your way around, you were lost. Good riddance to all that.

Of course, the only problem with Smart Phones is the form factor. You can't do everything with them. But that doesn't mean that we'll be stuck with PC's forever. The PC's form factor is too big. The race is underway now, between Google and Apple, to find the smallest form factor that'll let you do everything.

I can see the end of the PC now. And, with it, Windows. Microsoft is Smith Corona, which is history for toast.

Black Swan Killer

A couple of weeks ago, I speculated on the requirements and design of a system which could scale up to cleaning oil spills of any size.

Now, I'm both chagrined and gratified to learn that a component of the system I described already exists and has been available since long before I started thinking about it.

It's an ocean-going vessel that can skim huge volumes of oil. It meets the requirements that I laid down. Its name, on the back, is an in-your-face "A WHALE".

We need a fleet of these ships. We need a Manhattan project to build them. And they need to be maintained in constant readiness - to provide insurance for governments to authorize; oilmen to invest; fishermen to fish; tourists to come; and merchants to open their doors to receive them.

If "A WHALE" works, a fleet of these ships could take the Black Swan risk of finding oil off the table. I can't think of a better project for public money to subsidize and maintain.

It could change everything.

Advice to Google

This morning, while the market was tanking, I read an internet article about a rumor that Google is working hard on a social network that is intended to be a Facebook killer. The word is that Google will essentially reproduce the Facebook model.

I was moved to attach the following comment to the article:

If Google needs to put up an anti-Facebook (and they do), they should not copy Facebook. They should build a serious place for serious people, even businesses. Demote the "friend" notation which, in FB, limits the discourse to silliness, and elevate user-defined roles and relationships that can be multiply assigned within groups. Groups should be expanded to include user-defined "offices" and "organizations". Finally, tie the concept of "actions" to an easy-to-use work-flow engine, and promote it with all the people who work for a living and are candidates for Google apps which will be integrated with the system.

There it is, the once and future next big thing.

With or Without the Money

GOOG close: $475.10

Damn. Another six weeks of winter.

As a certified Long Distance Runner in GOOG, at times like this, I often say to myself: why should I worry? I won't need the money any time during the next six months.

Which beggars the question: when will I need the money?

I expressed this thought a few posts ago and have been pondering it ever since. Since I retired, we have been living substantially on my secure government pension without having to impair the quality of our deliberately modest life at all.

Over the past 15 years, our net worth has greatly increased, but very little of it has been due to my stock trading prowess. I must do this for fun. I'm lucky. Even when I'm unlucky.

My confidence is that, over time, I won't lose so much of it that, when I need some, it won't be there.

Applespeak 2010

In 1984, during the Super Bowl, Apple put up a commercial that ripped the doors off, originating the tradition of earth-shattering commercials on that hallowed sports occasion.

The commercial showed a great hall, filled with row after row of identical, seated clones, all watching a large screen which projected the flickering image of a dictator, bellowing Newspeak to the throng. Then, down the center aisle, an athletic man, carrying a sledge hammer, ran toward the screen. As he neared the front, he began swinging the hammer around his head. When he let it go, the hammer made a graceful arc toward the screen and smashed it to smithereens. The inmates, deprived of their sustenance, began to howl, identically.

The message was clear: Steve Jobs was way cooler than Bill Gates.

So far in the new millennium, Steve Jobs is still the coolest guy around. But I'm here to tell you that the jig is up with these 1984 metaphors.

Today, in 2010, Larry and Sergey ought to remake the commercial with the two of them running down the aisle with hammers to throw up against a big screen of Steve Jobs, bellowing Applespeak to an admiring Bog.

How long, Google Eve?

A few minutes ago, Tim Collins noted on RealMoney that Google is testing a big technical level today. From my view, if GOOG closes below its 30-second moving average, we may be in for a bit of nasty weather.

This would be no concern of a long-distance runner in GOOG like me, if I didn't insist on following the play every day. Silly me. Come Google Eve, it will all be made straight.

Cleaning the Black Swan

My experience with problems and problem solving is that problems always seem insoluble until the requirements for a solution are defined. When requirements have been defined, then practical, simple and economic solutions can, with a little ingenuity, always be found.

There's no reason to believe that this kind of thinking can not be applied to the catastrophe in the Gulf of Mexico.

In my opinion, the high-level requirements for an ideal "Oil Spill Cleaner" would be a system in which:

• oil-befouled water would be "vacuumed" up and run through a process which would separate the oil from the water, with the cleaned water being returned to its repository and the oil being directed to tanks for reclamation.
• Additional mechanisms would be designed to perform the same operations below the water surface to any arbitrary depth.
• The process must be available and ready to be deployed immediately to any location where an oil spill has been detected.
• The process must be scalable to contain oil spills of any size.

A system to fulfill these requirements can easily be imagined:

I see the basic component as a sea-going vessel, where the "gill" for taking in oil-spilled water would be a mechanism running the entire length of the vessel. The vessel would be designed so that it could move sideways through the water at a very low rate of speed. It would also be designed to move forward through the water in the normal way at higher rates of speed. Finally, the vessel would be designed as a large oil tanker for receiving and storing oil.

A vessel, so designed and outfitted, could motor normally and quickly to a spill location and then begin moving sideways at a slow speed to take in a broad section of oil-water for processing through its vessel-long "gill". It would not be necessary to build longer vessels for larger spills - the vessels would be designed as components that could be deployed in larger numbers to scale up to large spills. The strategy would be to deploy a sufficient number of vessels to encircle the spill. (Note that, with such a system, most oil-spills could be contained by a small number of vessels while the spills were still small.)

For oil that collects below the water surface, it may be efficacious to design an additional, submersible component that could vacuum up oil at any arbitrary depth. These components could be made relatively small so that they could suck up a quantity of oil, and then return it to the "mother" vessel by making frequent round trips. The "mother" vessel could process surface oil at same time that it was deploying and receiving oil obtained by the deep-water submersibles.

Since the system would result in the reclamation of spilled oil, the process could pay for itself. However, since actual spills will be relatively rare events, it would not be profitable for even a consortium of private corporations to design, build and maintain such a system in constant readiness. Governments will have to subsidize the entire process. They will pay for the system, but, of course, they should contract the design and development to the private sector.

The question may arise as to whether it would be feasible even for governments to maintain a system that might never be used. But that's not the issue. Such a system will be required for governments to be willing to allow deepwater oil wells to be used in the future.

Another question involves the feasibility of testing such a system in the absence of a major oil spill. The testing will be crucial for convincing the governments to put their faith in the system.

This brings me to my final thought: I say, give the job to Google to head up the design and martial the required, expert resources for development. Tell Larry, Sergey and Eric to have a prototype ready for testing by the end of the month. We may never again have a better test bed than we have today in the Gulf of Mexico.

BP's Black Swan

Congress is beating up BP on the charge that BP should have built in the available technology that could have eliminated the risk of the catastrophe that has happened. But that's not the way corporations work. I'm sure that they calculate the probable risks of untoward events occurring, and they measure these risks in relation to the expense of eliminating them.

You can't mitigate all risk, so it's a question of how much can reasonably be tolerated. No corporation allocates capex to defend against a meteor hit on its corporate headquarters. In like fashion, I'm sure that BP did not plan to prevent an oil spill on the scale of what occurred, on the rationale that nothing like that has ever happened before. We thought that the financial industry is the only area where Black Swan Events can arise. Not so - any complex enterprise can have them too.

The Black Swan swam into BP's waters. BP never saw it coming.

Gimme a dozen IPads

One reason Apple stock is a perpetual high flyer is that its products are the darlings of stock traders. I remember another stock with products that Wall Street traders went gaga for and it, too, had a great run that defied gravity - Krispy Kreme Doughnuts.

Business to Government: Get Out of Dodge

Unemployment remains in the vicinity of 10%. In the opinion of everybody, that is too high.

But consider this: the ranks of the unemployed are now swelled by a group of people who, in former times, were not looking for work, because they didn't have to work - they were retired. This time around, they want to be retired, but they're looking for work because their nest eggs have been savaged. These folks are Baby Boomers - and there's a lot of them.

Baby Boomers are a bubble all to themselves. They're now reaching retirement age, but they are staying in the job market and clogging it up, and a lot of them are not finding work. They're making that unemployment number higher than it would otherwise be.

The question is, why are these people unable to find work? Because businesses are not hiring. Business collectively has a staggering amount of capital laid up. They have the wherewithal to hire us right out of this recession, but they're not doing it because they are fretting that the Government is not subsidizing them further in the process.

Business wants the Government to give them all the money, with no strings attached, before they will start.

The message from Business: No more trickle-down until the Government leaves town.

From the Undisciplined Trader's Handbook

Homily for the day:

Always trade what you see, what's in front of you right now.

That's what the smart guys say. But when I, the Undisciplined Trader, apply this rule, I see a five-cent gain and I sell to protect it. What I don't see, is the stock five bucks higher. So I'm nickel-and-diming when I should be big-timing.

I need to learn how to trade what I don't see.

BP Tube

"Why don't we just plug up the tunnel

with you on one end and the Commandant on the other?"

Animal to Sgt. Schulz in "Stalag 17"

Everybody is coming up with their own solutions for plugging the BP leak. Meanwhile, on RealMoney, Tim Collins is trying to master the arithmetic involved in determining the amount of oil that's currently being captured by BP's engineers and how much is still leaking.

Forget about that - all we need to see is that pipe in the video with nothing coming out.

Musing, into the close

This morning, things were looking up.

GOOG was holding its own, around 485. My big oils (XOM and COP) were moving with the pop in the price of oil. And there were early rumors that some oil company in the Gulf of Mexico is going to sue the Government to remove the moratorium on drilling, so my little oil (ATPG) shot up 12% right out of the box. ATPG's daily chart in Google Finance was a thing of beauty - a picture of a short squeeze in motion, which is to say, a vertical line, straight up. Even Citibank popped 5%, which is to say, +17 cents.

This afternoon, around three, something happened. The Euro declined. Or Steve Jobs caught a cold. I'm not sure. But the market went to hell. Everything went down.

Fortunately, I don't need the money today. Chances are, I may not ever need the money.

Just in from the bleachers

Right now, in midafternoon, the DOW is down a bracing 311 points. Another couple of days like this and we'll be looking at Cramer's (projected) bottom, from below, looking up.

And, as the DOW is drum major to the band, everything is looking puny today. XOM and COP are both down big, mainly because I bought more of them yesterday, two points higher. However, GOOG and ATPG, of late descending faster than the speed of falling, have apparently cast off ballast and are resisting the trend. They're still down, but inveterate watchers of these stocks will testify that they are giving up ground grudgingly.

That's the way it looks to the Undisciplined Trader, me.

GOOG Gets No Respect

No respect at all.

Traders and Hedgies may know their charts, but they don't know GOOG. Witness this exchange between Stupid Trader and Google Guy:

Stupid Trader: "Google has only one business - it's just an advertising company, like the New York Times."

Google Guy: "Google is an automated, infinitely scalable vacuum cleaner that extracts cash from the world. They don't need another business. Next question."

Stupid Trader: "Google is cockamamie. A bunch of clowns. They give everything away free. They give their employees Friday off. They give prizes to spaceships. They give their CEO a pass on earnings call day."

Google guy: "Everything Google does is tactically and strategically designed to increase traffic to their vacuum cleaner. Next question."

Stupid Trader: "They can't execute."

Google Guy: "Yes, they can."

Stupid Trader: "They put NEXUS out with no customer support service."

Google Guy: "So?"

Stupid Trader:

Google Guy: "Next question."

Stupid Trader: "Apple will rule the world."

Google Guy: "Apple is a gadget-maker. They don't know anything about vacuum cleaners. Next question."

Stupid Trader: "China."

Google Guy: "Google."

Stupid Trader: "They took themselves out of the biggest market in the world."

Google Guy: "No, they didn't. They just moved to a nicer neighborhood. Google still has 30% of China. Are you really buying Baidu?"

Stupid Trader: "I was thinking about it."

Google Guy: "Next question."

Stupid Trader: "Google is too big. They can't keep growing every year like they used to."

Google Guy: "Oh, yeah?"

Conversation with My Hair Cutter

- I've decided to get my hair cut short.

- How short?

- I'm not sure. Real short.

- Why you want to do that?

- I don't want to comb it anymore.

- You won't like.

- Why not?

- Won't look good. You got bald spot.

- I don't care about looking good anymore. I want convenience.

- Won't look good. Bald spot show through.

- Yes, but now I'm looking at a severe comb-over situation. Bald might be better.

- Won't look good. You won't like.

- I don't care.

- What about beard?

- Keep the beard.

- You won't like. Won't look good.

- I don't care.

- Make you look old.

- I don't care.

Google Day

The day after Google Eve is Google Day, when earnings are released. Google Day is like Groundhog Day, in that the same shit keeps happening over and over again. The earnings blow through the roof and the stock tanks. Like Bill Murray, I'm slowly coming to a state of acceptance, even celebration, of this.

What was it this time? I'll tell you: Schmidt didn't show up and they didn't tell us about it ahead of time. That's it. The investing world went into a tizzy. Even the Fast Money guys, two of whom are long GOOG, were clucking about it. Everybody agreed that it really wasn't bad, but it sounded bad.

When is everybody going to stop hyperventilating and realize that, when Google went public in 2004, they made it clear that they had a big job to do, revolutionizing the Internet, and they were going to spend all their time on that and none of it worrying about investor relations. That means no meetings with agendas on deciding when to announce the CEO's absence from the earnings show.

Schmidt was probably having a latte somewhere with Jobs, talking about interesting stuff.

Google Eve

Google Eve is upon us again.

All is quiet on the Google front. No gatherings or celebrations are planned this night. Not that there isn't cause, but we GoogleHeads have learned to take these events in stride. The word going out is for an evening of quiet meditation in anticipation of a good result tomorrow.

Think on this:

The Joy of Retirement

I know today is Friday.

It's not Saturday or Sunday because the stock market is open.

It's not Monday because I'm not celebrating the end of the weekend.

It's not Tuesday or Wednesday or Thursday because I'm not thinking that next weekend is still a few days away.

I know it's Friday because I take the trash out on Thursday evening and, this morning, my empty trash can is in the middle of the street.