Tuesday, January 31, 2012

...and Flynn a-hugging third!

I'm reminded of Casey at the Bat by GOOG's action, the past few daysit's been hugging $580 like Flynn was hugging third. And C, like Jimmy, safe at second with a little gain. But from the perspective of the whole inning, there was no joy in Mudville and the portfolio took a hit of 0.18%.

Friday, January 27, 2012

And a good day was had by all, except COP

GOOG tested the deep end of the pool, didn't like it and snapped back to just six cents shy of $580.

DE, a stalwart gainer of late, was over $88 most of the day, but then dropped back to $87.99. I guess that made somebody happy.

COP was the only downer, but not by much. This weakness is not just about the collapse of natural gas, I'm thinking. I think people are shy of taking on COP before the split-up, which should happen soon.

ATPG, OIH and C toiled away in their ruts.

Total portfolio change since yesterday: 1.13%. Not bad.

Thursday, January 26, 2012

We was fab

Intraday, today, we was champs---GOOG was up a fin, DE came within 11 cents of achieving $89, everything was up.

At the close, only C remained in the green with a meaningless gain of $0.42.

The portfolio was down 0.54% on the day. The net profit in the group is 1.5%, which is more than I can say for my money market shares.

Tuesday, January 24, 2012

Today, all my dreams came true

I asked the Closing Price Fairy today for GOOG to close above $580; for COP to end with a gain, no matter how small; and for DE, which had been down over a buck and a half intraday, to cut its loss to less than fifty cents.

At the close:

GOOG $580.93
COP       +0.05
DE           -0.48

Thanks to the Closing Price Fairy and 
the old stone Church of the Sacred Bleeding Heart 
for this result.

Monday, January 23, 2012

A Tobacco Road Kind of Day

Nothing in my list today varied more than a dollar, up or down—that's as flat as it gets. Percentage-wise, ATPG was up almost 5%, but don't get excited—it's a seven dollar stock right now. Nothing to be exactly proud of.

Percentage change in the portfolio today is 0.

Friday, January 20, 2012

Rally round the ticker, boys

There wasn't a lot for me to like in today's action.

It got started yesterday afternoon with another debacle where all the analysts got Google's earnings wrong again.  Why don't these guys get fired?

Then, today, all my stocks opened down and stayed there for most of the day, plus it was raining in Snellville.

But, into the close, their were a couple of things to get cheery about:

     >  ATPG didn't go down.

     >  COP and OIH went down, but just a little.

     >  DE was impressive, gaining a dime to close above $87.

     >  C was up smartly, but nothing C does in the near term means anything.

     >  GOOG, after it's initial whoosh! to damn near $560, settled down.

Bouncing off that bottom, GOOG rose at the open this morning to $591 and then stabilized around $586, where it closed. This doesn't feel like the ghosts of GOOG debacles past. I feel strength and resiliency in the stock.

Despite this setback, I believe we are entering a new range for GOOG. People are becoming aware that GOOG's relentless earnings, even when they disappoint, are lifting the tide that will ultimately engulf the price and carry it upwards.

Thursday, January 19, 2012

Looking up at Everest from the floor of a bar in Kathmandu

From this linoleum floor I'm on, Everest doesn't seem all that high to me. If I were ever to reach that summit, I'm sure I'd see a sign saying "This Way To GOOG $741".

Fellow sufferers, we still have a way to go—yet another unscheduled pit stop on the long road to Hallelujah Land.

Wednesday, January 18, 2012

Google Eve

Google Eve again. The pressure never lets up. This is a critical juncture for GOOGthe report tomorrow will have to blow past the high end of analyst estimates, as it did the last two quarters, if we are to see $700, instead of $600 again. The perverse sons-of-bitches whose favorite short is GOOG will have to feel the sting of the lash once again if they are to be completely routed.

Elsewhere, in my portfolio, DE has surmounted $86 for the first time in quite a while and my oil stocks were solidly to the upside. Even C got a bounce.

The portfolio ended the day with everything in the green for an overall gain of 1.3% since yesterday.

All in all, a satisfactory Google Eve. Let's hope that Google Day, tomorrow, will be equally satisfactory.

Friday, January 13, 2012

An Unpleasantness

Years ago, Larry Munson---who died recently---used to sit in front of a teletype machine and try to conjure up for his radio audience the color of an eyewitness account of Nashville Vols' baseball games from the meager data coming in over the wire after each inning.

I think about Munson as I sit here each day, watching the numbers on my Google Finance portfolio screen change from second to second.  From that, I try to come up with something interesting to say that will summarize the day's progress or retreat. I'm just like Munson, I think---all I need is an audience.

Today was unpleasant all around, with the only bit of cheer being provided by DE, which resisted the trend with a .26% rise.

Thursday, January 12, 2012

Clevelands and Kardashians

GOOG continued to chug up the hill.  Earnings mania will set in next week.  There won't be much time for the traders to press another downturn before Google Eve. Whether that bodes well or ill for the next quarter is anybody's guess.

My oil stocks continued to slide.  I understand that the crash in the price of natural gas is to blame.  Of course.

Deere valiantly fought back to close down just $0.06.  It continues in the plus columnup a Cleveland.

Citigroup continues to shine, although, in front of every silver lining, there is a dark cloud.

Total portfolio down a quarter of one percent---Kardashian tip money.

Wednesday, January 11, 2012

Deep Holes and Destiny

DE and C improved their prices smartly today, and GOOG didn't go down.  C, of course, is coming up from a deep hole, but DE is now showing a profit of 1.26%.  GOOG is just fooling around before Google Eve.  Nothing good will happen until then.

All the oils (ATPG, COP and COP) stunk.

So let us be thankful for small favors and future expectations, and remember to stay out of deep holes.

Tuesday, January 10, 2012

Let's hear it for Larry Page!

I should be happy today---all my stocks were up.  DE was in the plus column for the first time since I bought it.  COP inched up comfortably above my highest cost basis. ATPG, OIH and C had nice gains north of 2% each.

Only GOOG, though up on the day, turned in an anemic performance of .11%.  It remains hunkered, waiting for further assaults from the GOOG perma-bears.

Also, I might add that NLY, which I sold, was up .99%.  Way to go, NLY!

The whole portfolio was up .70%.  I'll take it.  I'll need it tomorrow when I'll have to give it back.

On slow days, the mind wanders---I'm thinking about what Bill Gates, Steve Jobs and Bobby Fischer had in common, namely, a killer instinct that made them want, not just to best their opponents, but to destroy them.

And I'm wondering if Larry Page also has this quality.  With a mission to be open and free with everything, you would think not. But maybe that was Sergey's idea.  I think Larry has shown, from the start, that he wants, if not to kill, then at least to beat the buggers into submission.  And I think he has executed on that plan magnificently during the whole history of Google.

Monday, January 9, 2012


Motorola's troubles were visited on GOOG today.

Once again, it's hunker down time, for no good reason.  With Google Eve right around the corner, too.

The traders will want to see if they can push it back under $600. It worked for them last time.  This time, I'm not so sure.

The rest of the card was fair to piddling.

Courtesy of GOOG, the portfolio lost 1.66%.  Last Tuesday's ramp has been undone.

Saturday, January 7, 2012

Big bang, followed by little whimper

The first week of 2012 was a short oneit started with a bang on Tuesday, with reverberations into Wednesday, but faded on Thursday and Friday.

On Thursday, I sold my small position in NLY for a tiny profit, plus a dividend.  I decided that NLY has too many headwinds going forward.

My portfolio ended 2011 essentially flat (-.10%).  So far, in 2012, I'm up 1.36%.

GOOG, COP and DE are in breakout mode.  C, OIH and ATPG are still in the penalty box.

My current stocks, as of COB Friday, have a net gain of 7.41%.  GOOG and COP have a combined gain of 23%.  ATPG, OIH, DE and C have a combined loss of 21%.

The nice thing is that my winners represent 83.28% of my portfolio.

Wednesday, January 4, 2012

The Calm after the Storm

A flat day after such an upheaval as we had yesterday is not a bad thing. Google eked out a small, but decent gain, dotting the i in its increase, as they say on the floor of the big board. Deere was especially strong---I may show a profit in this position soon. Everything else was just treading water.

Tuesday, January 3, 2012

The Breakout has Broken Out

I just googled the title of this post, and got no exact links.  I'm surprised that it hasn't been used before.  Now, I'll be credited with the phrase, if there's an Android in heaven.  Actually, I'm not really concerned about whether there is an Android or not.

It was a good day for me.  I don't know about you.  A lot of guys were leaning the wrong way.  Hey, we're all keeping you losers in our thoughts, okay?

Google was tremendous.  Throttle back, all the way.  $700 is a given now.  We have to start talking about $745, where this stock has never gone before.  It could easily run to a new all-time high and then bog down under $800.  It won't be easy, but I thinking a new range is being established.  The old one was $250 to $750.  The new one will be $750 to $1000.  Altucher will be vindicated.

Conoco did good today, too.

Everything did good today.

Sunday, January 1, 2012

Fin d'année

If you don't read French, as I don't, use Google Translate, damn you, as I do.  It's a cheap way of giving this blog the appearance of a little erudition. I resolve, henceforth, to give French titles to all my posts.  Of course, I have a long history of not keeping resolutions.

For those of you who disdain Google Translate, I am considering my situation at the end of the year now past.  From the table below, you can see that I am preposterously undiversified in my investments.  Certified Financial Advisors are taught to retch at portfolios like mine.  I don't care.  I have great confidence in this group of stocks.  I sleep well at night.

GOOG ended the year at a breakout level of $645.90.  I expect to see $700 in January, following the release of fourth quarter earnings.  Within the year, I hope to see prices north of $741, where GOOG has never gone before.  For this to happen, the traders who have hated this stock from the beginning will have to capitulate.  Stranger things have happened.  Somebody named Alan Brochstein, who has 66,000 followers, tweeted "900" for GOOG last Thursday.

Admittedly, that is in the upper regions of the atmosphere, where James Altucher lives and breathes pure ozone.  But I expect to see that level and beyond in my lifetime.  That's why I have allocated almost half of my worldly possessions to GOOG shares.

COP is my next largest position.  Closing the year at $72.87, it is just above the break-even point for my most recent acquisitions during the last downturn, after selling shares at $79.25, last April.  COP and GOOG are my biggest profit makers.  I'm looking forward to the coming split of COP into two companies in early 2012, which should unlock additional value for shareholders.

DE is my third largest position, but it accounts for only 10.88% of my holdings.  At year's end, I have a 7.31% loss in the stock, owing to an untimely purchase last year.  I confess to knowing nothing about farm equipmentI used to think that Massey Ferguson was a trumpet playerbut Cramer said DE was good, so I bought it.  I have reasonably good hope that I will eventually achieve a profit here.

The rest are small spuds.

I own ATPG and OIH because I'm too old to ride real rollercoasters.

I own C because that's where the money used to be.

I own NLY because I'm a greedy pig.

I have losses in all these stocks (except NLY), but I stubbornly hold on to them because I can.  My conviction is that they will recover some day.

On this first day of 2012, my only regret is that the stock market is not open tomorrow.