Sunday, January 1, 2012

Fin d'année

If you don't read French, as I don't, use Google Translate, damn you, as I do.  It's a cheap way of giving this blog the appearance of a little erudition. I resolve, henceforth, to give French titles to all my posts.  Of course, I have a long history of not keeping resolutions.

For those of you who disdain Google Translate, I am considering my situation at the end of the year now past.  From the table below, you can see that I am preposterously undiversified in my investments.  Certified Financial Advisors are taught to retch at portfolios like mine.  I don't care.  I have great confidence in this group of stocks.  I sleep well at night.

GOOG ended the year at a breakout level of $645.90.  I expect to see $700 in January, following the release of fourth quarter earnings.  Within the year, I hope to see prices north of $741, where GOOG has never gone before.  For this to happen, the traders who have hated this stock from the beginning will have to capitulate.  Stranger things have happened.  Somebody named Alan Brochstein, who has 66,000 followers, tweeted "900" for GOOG last Thursday.

Admittedly, that is in the upper regions of the atmosphere, where James Altucher lives and breathes pure ozone.  But I expect to see that level and beyond in my lifetime.  That's why I have allocated almost half of my worldly possessions to GOOG shares.

COP is my next largest position.  Closing the year at $72.87, it is just above the break-even point for my most recent acquisitions during the last downturn, after selling shares at $79.25, last April.  COP and GOOG are my biggest profit makers.  I'm looking forward to the coming split of COP into two companies in early 2012, which should unlock additional value for shareholders.

DE is my third largest position, but it accounts for only 10.88% of my holdings.  At year's end, I have a 7.31% loss in the stock, owing to an untimely purchase last year.  I confess to knowing nothing about farm equipmentI used to think that Massey Ferguson was a trumpet playerbut Cramer said DE was good, so I bought it.  I have reasonably good hope that I will eventually achieve a profit here.

The rest are small spuds.

I own ATPG and OIH because I'm too old to ride real rollercoasters.

I own C because that's where the money used to be.

I own NLY because I'm a greedy pig.

I have losses in all these stocks (except NLY), but I stubbornly hold on to them because I can.  My conviction is that they will recover some day.

On this first day of 2012, my only regret is that the stock market is not open tomorrow.

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