Monday, October 29, 2007

GOOG in the Briar Patch

Today, GOOG closed at 679.23.

For an all-time high, it was a modest move, without vigor. The whole market seemed tired, today, despite the positive close. Opposing forces clashed, but without passionate intensity. The Fed looms, like an ancient castle wrapped in mist.

I have been of two minds about GOOG's near-term chances: in one, the stock was mispriced all last year and is now making up for lost time, seeking a new level; in the other, it has clearly run out of gas and is due for a swoon - temporary, of course.

If it swoons, how far will it likely go? When it went through 200 for the first time, it backed off, fooled around, and then dithered its way back to 160. Not on any news, just simple exhaustion. A move like that today, from 679, would take us back to Ol' Virginny: the 540's. Even if it runs to 700 before the inevitable pull-back, a 20% correction would achieve the 560's.

Of course, I wouldn't mind if it did. It would give me a chance to re-establish my full position, plus a few more shares for my trouble.

But it may never get there. If my first theory is correct, then the next stop is 750 and beyond, and my hope to repurchase my sold shares will be dashed. In that event, GOOG may never see 650 again. Of course, that's a briar patch of a whole different color.

1 comment:

LauraVella said...

"But it may never get there. If my first theory is correct, then the next stop is 750 and beyond"



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Fools are easily parted from their money!